Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
605
FXUS63 KDLH 051202
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
602 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak system is exiting to the east this morning, with drying
conditions and clearing skies through the morning.
- Cooler, and near normal, temperatures return for the rest of
the work week. Temperatures dip below normal this weekend.
- A couple more opportunities for precipitation through early
next week, with a rain/snow mix at times. Rainfall totals of a
couple tenths of an inch are possible, but any snowfall
accumulations will be negligible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Weak upper level shortwave is crossing the region this morning,
with a surface low now centered over west central Wisconsin.
An area of light rainfall has shifted southeastward, currently
over the South Shore, with some lake enhancement over Bayfield
and Douglas counties. Cannot rule out a snowflake or two, but
primary precip type will remain rain. A low stratus deck and
patchy fog remains over the Arrowhead, where surface winds are
lighter and low level moisture remains high. Northwesterly flow
becomes dominant through the day, advecting colder air
southward. Highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s. Guidance
keeps the deep drier air west of US-53 until this evening, and
could see cloud cover linger over the Arrowhead through the
afternoon.
High pressure slides across the area tonight, with calming
winds at the surface and continued cold advection aloft under
northwesterly upper level flow. Temperatures will remain closer to
seasonal norms, with lows tonight in the 20s, and highs
Thursday in the 40s and lower 50s.
Upper level pattern remains active into early next week. The
first clipper arrives Thursday, with a low pressure system
tracking across the Dakotas, toward Lake Superior. Isentropic
lift ahead of the surface low might allow for light showers
across the area Thursday afternoon and night, but most of the
precipitation will fall north of the border, where low level
convergence and moisture are greater. Could see some light
showers on Friday, as the system pulls east of the area,
especially along the South Shore as northwest winds blow across
the lake.
Colder air pushes southward for the weekend, with temperatures
falling well below normal for early November. Highs Saturday
through Monday will remain in the 30s, with most of the area
remaining at or below freezing Sunday. Away from the immediate
shorelines, which will be in the lower 20s, overnight lows will
be in the teens, with a brisk northwest wind. The next clipper
drops across the Plains Saturday and Sunday, remaining well
southwest of the Northland. Guidance continues to trend toward a
drier solution locally, with a few showers possible near the
Brainerd Lakes area Saturday. A strong upper level trough axis
swings through the area behind the clipper, carrying a wave of
moisture with it, and reinforcing cold air aloft. Model
soundings show saturation up to 600-500mb north of the Iron
Range Saturday night and Sunday morning. Depending on forcing
could see an increase in chances for snow showers. Further
southwest, favorable temperature profiles over Lake Superior
(water temps in the 40s and 850mb as low as -15C) will lead to
lake effect snow showers over northwest Wisconsin through early
next week. There is about a 20 to 40 percent chance of an inch
of accumulation over Ashland and Iron counties with lower
probabilities farther west and south.
The pattern remains active, with another wave arriving Tuesday,
that brings low chances of light precipitation to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Low clouds linger behind an exiting low pressure system this
morning, with a mix of MVFR/IFR heights. Already seeing the back
edge of the stratus deck over the Arrowhead erode, as winds
increase from the northwest, with clear skies at INL and BRD to
start the period. Expect VFR cigs at all terminals by 13-14Z.
Northwest winds at 7-12kts with gusts up to 20kts will diminish
through the day, with light and variable winds tonight as high
pressure builds into the area.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 231 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
A fast-moving clipper will bring gusty winds to western Lake
Superior today. Winds will increase from the northwest with
wind speeds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots.
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for the nearshore waters
starting with the North Shore, Outer Apostles, and Oak Point to
Saxon Harbor at 4 AM this morning, and adding the remainder of
the waters at 10 AM. Waves along the Outer Apostle Islands will
build to 2 to 6 feet. Wind and waves subside tonight as high
pressure builds into the region. Another clipper will pass along
the Canadian Border Thursday and Friday. Winds may become gusty
both ahead of the low pressure system and in its wake.
Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late
this week. Much colder air will pour into the region Saturday
and Sunday. Strong winds and building waves are expected in
addition to lake effect snow showers. The strongest winds will
be Sunday and Sunday night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this
evening for LSZ121-145>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
LSZ140>144-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
