Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
309
FXUS63 KDLH 040534
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1134 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Overnight and morning fog and stratus over the next few days.
- A more active pattern arrives Friday and lasts into early next
week. For Friday, moderate rain, rumbles of thunder, a wintry
mix and a bit of snow are all possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Quiet and mild weather dominates the Northland for the next few
days as high pressure remains the primary influence.
Temperatures will stay well above normal through Thursday, with
many locations across the area reaching the upper 40s and even
the lower 50s. While this feels like an early spring, the warmth
will be tempered slightly near Lake Superior on Thursday as
winds turn to the northeast, pulling cooler air off the water
and keeping lakeside temperatures in the 30s.
The warm temperatures over the area will create a daily freeze
and thaw cycle. This moisture being added daily into the near-
surface layer favors the development of fog and low stratus
clouds during the late night and lasting into the early morning
hours. Visibility may drop significantly at times, but these
clouds should gradually erode each afternoon to reveal some
sunshine. There is the best potential tonight for areas of dense
fog in north-central Minnesota late evening to early tonight
and then moving northeastward into the Arrowhead later tonight
into tomorrow morning. Will have to keep an eye out for possible
Special Weather Statement or even Dense Fog Advisory headline
needs for those zones tonight.
The weather turns much more active on Friday as a strong low
pressure system moves into the region. Rain is expected to spread
across the Northland starting Friday morning, with the most
significant totals focused over northwest Wisconsin and eastern
Minnesota. We are even monitoring the potential for rumbles of
thunder Friday, particularly south of the Iron Range Friday
evening. This system is likely to produce some moderate rainfall
(around 1/4 to 3/4 inches) in some southern parts of the
Northland as it taps both Pacific and Gulf moisture. The
precipitable water values range from 0.65 to 0.9 inches in
global ensemble guidance which is well-above normal for this
time of year.
As colder air filters in behind the system on Friday night, the
rain will likely mix with or change over to light snow before
ending. At least a light bit of snowfall is likely for much of
north-central and parts of northeast Minnesota late Friday.
There is a 75% chance of at least few tenths of an inch of
snowfall in north-central Minnesota late Friday night. The
probabilities for higher amounts closer to a few inches quickly
drop off though down to only 25% for the Brainerd Lakes to US
Hwy 53 corridor in northern Minnesota.
A weaker clipper looks to drop into the region from the northwest
this weekend and brings a 30-40% chance of precipitation with
it. Ensemble guidance right now progs the weekend clipper to
still begin precipitating within a warmer airmass to mainly
support a rain/snow mix or more likely mostly rain into Sunday
daytime before higher snowfall chances build into early next
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Satellite shows IFR/LIFR stratus deck expanding across north central
MN. With the abundance of melting snow we saw today dewpoints remain
moist enough to support the development of fog. Both the fog and
stratus will likely linger through the morning hours before
giving way to some brief VFR conditions in the afternoon. Expect
for INL where they may be locked into stratus through the day.
Tomorrow evening looks to be similar with stratus and fog once
again developing and expanding across the region.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Expect quiet conditions through Wednesday night with waves under 1
foot. Northeast winds increase Thursday to 15-20 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots, which will likely create hazardous conditions for
small craft along the North Shore.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
