Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
784
FXUS63 KDLH 251124
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate rain is likely tonight into early Sunday
morning.
- Widespread rain is likely Monday into Tuesday. Rainfall
amounts around or over one inch are possible for many areas.
Thunderstorms and some minor flooding is possible.
- Temperatures will trend a bit cooler next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
This Morning through Tonight:
The weather is very quiet out there this morning with higher
clouds moving in from the southwest ahead of a slow-moving cold
front. Expect plenty of clouds out there as a result today, and
rain will be moving in aloft with a stream of moisture nearly
co-located with the front. There will be plenty of dry air near
the surface today, so nearly all rain falling aloft will not
make it to the surface. Tonight, however, the atmosphere should
saturate and a "ribbon" of rain is expected to move northeast,
impacting a large chunk of the region. Amounts in general should
be pretty light with a tenth of an inch or two, but a somewhat
narrow corridor of around half an inch is certainly possible.
Right now, northeast Minnesota has the best chance for that. A
few rumbles of thunder are possible tonight, but with very weak
and limited instability, thunder should be pretty uncommon.
Sunday through Tuesday:
The cold front will essentially become stationary overhead on
Sunday. The initial round of rain should end around Sunday
morning as we lose some upper-level lift, but there could be
some showers still hanging around. The bigger story will be an
upper-level trough and an attendant surface low expected to
develop and move northeast through the Midwest into the northern
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. There`s actually pretty decent
agreement on the storm track and timing, so that lends some
higher confidence to the overall forecast. PWATs getting up to
around 1" with a Gulf/Pacific connection should bring some good
potential for 1"+ rainfall amounts for much of the region
(40-60% chance), and perhaps some ~1.5" amounts (10-30% chance).
Convection potential looks low, but non-zero with perhaps a few
hundred J/kg sliding through Monday afternoon and evening.
Better chances for severe weather will be around southern
Minnesota into central Wisconsin and points south. In our
region, it`s looking like this will be more of a steady rain for
the most part. As such, potential for flooding will probably be
somewhat limited, but still non-zero. Without much for heavy
rainfall rates, flash flooding isn`t looking too concerning, but
there could be some localized and probably minor areal
flooding. At this point, much of the snow pack in the Arrowhead
has melted with the last rainfall episode, and more will
gradually melt over the next couple days before this system. If
there`s any place that will have the highest risk for any
flooding concerns with the Monday-Tuesday system, the North
Shore is it with what little is left of the snow melting and
contributing to rainfall runoff.
Despite fairly good model agreement on track and timing, if
there are any shifts further north, there`s a non-zero chance
that some marginal severe weather potential could nudge into
northwest Wisconsin. But as of now, this should largely be a
rain event with perhaps some embedded non-severe storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Rest of Today:
Plenty of clear skies for most of the area this afternoon as
high pressure sits over the region, with the exception being
some cloud cover development in north-central Minnesota starting
this afternoon/evening in association with shortwave energy
aloft on the periphery of a closed low churning over southern
Saskatchewan. Temperatures top out in the 50s for most, but some
low 60s may be found in the I-35 corridor into inland NW WI.
westerly to northwesterly wind gusts are still gusting to 15-20
mph at times, but will weaken later this afternoon/evening and
become light tonight. Near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected the remainder of this afternoon through early evening
for north-central Minnesota due to relative humidity values
falling to 20-30 percent.
Tonight - This Weekend:
Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight into Saturday as
weak shortwave energy aloft continues. A weak cool front in
conjunction with more weak shortwave energy will bring light
rain potential for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning
(20-40% chance) to NE MN and NW WI. There will likely be some
returns on radar aloft during the day on Saturday, but it will
be difficult for this precipitation to reach the ground before
evaporating due to drier air in the lowest 4000-6000 feet of the
atmosphere. The Brainerd Lakes would be the area with the best
potential for light rain to reach the ground Saturday afternoon.
Instability is low to nil with this precipitation, so only a
few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts should be on the lighter
side, generally 0.1-0.25" or less, with highest amounts from the
Brainerd Lakes into the MN Arrowhead.
Expect mild temperatures for most locations away from Lake
Superior this weekend, with highs in the 50s to low 60s Saturday
and upper 50s to upper 60s Sunday, warmest in northwest
Wisconsin. High temperatures near Lake Superior should be cooler
in the upper 40s to low/mid-50s. East winds on Sunday should
also bring in a lake breeze.
We will need to watch far northern/north-central MN for possible
near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon as
afternoon relative humidity values dip into the 25-30% range,
particularly for areas that did not see much for rainfall with
this recent round of rain/storms.
Late Sunday Night - Tuesday:
Lee cyclogenesis is expected with a developing Colorado Low late
Sunday that will then eject northeast and strengthen, tracking
northeast through the Minnesota/Wisconsin late Monday through
Monday night before exiting into Ontario by Tuesday PM. This
system will bring a surge of moisture with origins in the
western Gulf and modified moisture from Baja California. Latest
NAEFS PWAT percentiles reach the 90th percentile (~0.75-1" of
PWATs) for Monday through Monday night for much of the
Northland. Broad support for parcel ascent with good synoptic
forcing should aid in development of widespread rain with some
thunderstorm potential with this system as it moves through the
region starting Sunday night, peaking in coverage on Monday PM
into Monday night, and ending daytime Tuesday as the low
pressure system exits. There is still some uncertainty in the
ensemble model members` low pressure tracks Monday into Monday
night, with the EPS members clustered more northwest into a
southern MN/western IA to NE MN/NW WI track while the GEFS
members are clustered as a whole about 50-100 miles farther
east/southeast. Our current forecast currently splits the
difference between the two global ensemble systems. At the
moment, the warm sector of this low pressure is favored to
remain southeast of the Northland, but if the system takes a
more northwesterly track then some low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm potential could make a nudge north into NW WI for
Monday afternoon and evening. There is also a Marginal Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for all of the Northland on Monday into Monday
night given the broad, widespread rainfall signal. Low pressure
track an mesoscale features will influence where the heaviest
rainfall and possibly minor flooding potential sets up, and
these features will come into clearer focus as this system
approaches.
Mid - Late Next Week:
We transition into a general northwest flow pattern aloft mid to
late next week across the region with periodic, low confidence
timing and placement of shortwave energy and associated lighter
precipitation keeps chances in the forecast lower (20% or less).
This timeframe will also be on the slightly cooler side
relative to earlier in the week, with daily highs in the upper
40s to 50s and lows around or just below freezing. Depending on
the timing of any precipitation chances mid to late week, a few
snow flurries could mix in with rain at times.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VFR ceilings and light winds are expected today. Later this
evening, rain is expected to develop from southwest to northeast
along a corridor from BRD to DLH/HIB. Ceilings and visibility
are likely to fall to MVFR, though there may be some periods
where conditions just barely remain VFR with ceilings and
visibility even with clouds and light rain.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Light northeast winds are expected until Monday when a large low
pressure system passes through the region. No marine hazards are
expected until then. As winds turn northwesterly going into
Tuesday, we may have a ~30% chance for some gales along the
North Shore. Otherwise, expect gusts in the 20-30 kt range with
this Monday-Tuesday system, which will likely be hazardous for
small craft. Expect rain and a few thunderstorms in this period
as well.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
It`s looking like a fairly dry day out there with generally
light winds. Min RH could approach 25% around the Canadian
Border this afternoon, but that all depends on cloud cover,
which will be increasing through the day. As such, confidence is
not high enough to issue a Special Weather Statement for near-
critical fire weather because it`s possible that RH may not fall
to 25%, or if it does, it may be for just a couple hours. In
general, min RH is expected to range from around 25-30% up north
to 30-35% elsewhere.
The situation on Sunday is looking similar, but even more
limited for places that may see RH below 30% as we get broad
onshore flow from Lake Superior as well as some lingering rain
Sunday morning.
Widespread rain is expected Monday and ends Tuesday. Fire
weather conditions are expected to be minimized as a result.
Some thunder is possible at times with the rain.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
